Why You Should Wait Six Years Before Buying Your Next Vehicle

By 2020, the option of having a self-driving vehicle will be a reality--that's only six years away. According to Kurzweilai.net, most auto manufacturers are "incrementalists," adding automated features such as adaptive cruise control, self-parking, and traffic-jam assist. But, as we've covered in other posts, what we know about technology is that it is spiky, not linear. This means that the latest technology builds on the advancements and strength of the previous technology. It thus can spread very fast.  

Mercedes Benz S500 Intelligent Drive Autonomous Car

There are three options when looking at automated vehicles: 

• Partially automated: Here a car can take over some aspects of driving, such as speed and steering, but cannot control much beyond that;
• Highly automated: The car can drive itself, but is also equipped with a human over-ride system.
• Fully automated: Drives itself without human over-ride.

Don Norman, a professor of design from University of California, San Diego and author of The Design of Everyday Things, gave a lecture endorsing Google's project for fully automated vehicles in which he claimed that a highly automated car would be less safe than a fully-automated one. Airplanes, Norman pointed out, have been highly automated for years; however, the over-ride system provides several minutes for the pilot to take over control. The problem with cars, at least thus far, is that would have only a split second or two to take over, should the vehicle be unable to handle driving conditions. 

Don Norman: Three Ways Design Makes You Happy

But don't hold off on purchasing that new vehicle just yet; for while it's very likely that highly-automated cars will be on the roads by 2020 and fully-automated by 2030, it remains very difficult to predict the accuracy of these seemingly arbitrary timelines. Many insurance companies, for example, remain unprepared to welcome even incremental hands-free driving, according to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: "Why buy an autonomous vehicle if you have to maintain control? says Adrian Lund, the President of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety." Lund predicts that autonomous vehicles won't be around anytime soon as a result of barriers presented by the legal and insurance sectors. For while it may be permissible for some experts to test autonomous vehicles, it remains a long-way off for the average person to be permitted to take his or her hands off the wheel for significant periods of time.

There remain a panoply of issues related to autonomous vehicles, but technology marches on. The insurance and legal sectors are some of the slowest moving when it comes to policy adjustments in the wake of new innovations. If I were to place a bet, I'd put it on Google and the technologists; for while there are complex issues surround these technologies, there's nothing like a product oozing with cool-factor shot through with high levels of practicality that can shake up a market and get even the most truculent policy-makers to move their feet and march. Time will only tell...